Monthly dynamic report of the machinery industry: the manufacturing industry is booming, and the performance differentiation of the sector is focused on the investment opportunities of pro-cyclical general equipment

In January, the medium and long term loans of enterprises reached a record high in the same period, focusing on the investment opportunities of general equipment. In January, social finance increased by 5.98 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 195.9 billion yuan; Among them, the medium and long-term loans of enterprises and institutions increased by 1.35 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.4 trillion yuan over the same period of last year. Since the beginning of the year, the financing demand for infrastructure and manufacturing industries has been relatively strong. In January, the PMI was 50.1%, and the manufacturing industry boomed; PPI continued to reach the bottom, down 0.8% year on year. The supply and demand sides of the manufacturing industry are expected to recover, and the investment opportunities of pro-cyclical general equipment deserve attention. We believe that the investment in manufacturing industry in 2023 is still the direction of policy development, and the growth will mainly come from the policy support for high-tech manufacturing industry, the independent and controllable industrial chain under the enhanced uncertainty of the international situation, and the equipment renewal cycle.

Some enterprises released the 2022 performance forecast, and the performance of the segments was significantly differentiated. As of January 30, 188 of the 257 companies that issued the performance forecast had a performance increase. In 2022, 257 companies achieved a total net profit attributable to the parent company of 36.17 billion to 47.844 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of -14.14% - 13.57%.

In each segment, oil service equipment was affected by the expected increase in capital expenditure driven by the high oil and gas prices, and its net profit increased by 164.37% - 205.14%; Benefiting from the boom of the industry, the net profit of photovoltaic (81.57% - 100.66%), semiconductor (74.14% - 107.79%), lithium (47.70% - 68.26%), nuclear power equipment (57.34% - 65.57%), coal mining machinery (51.54% - 65.72%) equipment enterprises maintained rapid growth; The losses of rail transit and robots were further expanded compared with 2021.

In the near future, the trend of perovskite industry has accelerated, with more than 1GW of capacity under construction and built, and more than 26GW of planned capacity. In January this year, Kunshan GCL Photovoltaic Materials Co., Ltd. obtained the 3C certification certificate of perovskite module BIPV photovoltaic glass issued by the China Quality Certification Center (CQC), which took an important step in opening up the domestic building photovoltaic market. The investment in the construction of single GW battery capacity is conservatively 500 million yuan. According to the calculation of 3-4 production lines of single GW capacity, the corresponding equipment value is 300 million yuan to 400 million yuan, of which the value of coating equipment accounts for more than 50%. It is suggested to pay attention to the equipment investment opportunities in the process of perovskite scale, including PVD/RPD equipment with large value, laser equipment manufacturers with strong deterministic demand and increased penetration of mainstream cell links, evaporation and plating equipment, etc.

Investment suggestions: continue to be optimistic about investment opportunities in high-end equipment import substitution under the trend of manufacturing power and supply chain security, and new energy equipment under the trend of dual carbon. It is suggested to pay attention to: 1) the sub-industries with import substitution space in the field of mechanical equipment, including CNC machine tools and tools, robots, scientific instruments, semiconductor equipment, etc; 2) The new energy sector benefits from sub-industries, including photovoltaic equipment, wind power equipment, nuclear power equipment, energy storage equipment, etc; 3) Equipment investment under the transformation of automobile supply chain driven by new energy vehicles, including integrated die-casting, power exchange equipment, composite copper foil, etc.

Risk tip: the risk that the investment in manufacturing industry is lower than expected and the policy support is lower than expected.